Finding longer priced winners at the horse races requires insight and a lot of courage because you are betting against what other punters are doing. You are saying that the majority of the betting punters have got it wrong. The favourite wins about a third of all races but on other race days less than this because of unfavourable track conditions and what this tells us is that the betting public are very often wrong in their assessment of the race.
Most punters use recent form as a yard stick to measure each horse’s ability to win the race and this is the most sensible way to go about finding the winner but problem for the punter who is seeking value is that most punters are also using recent form and guess what? they all arrive at basically the same conclusion.
If you have the courage to bet against the crowd then you must think differently. What factors have most other punters have overlooked which you can profit from. Each horses recent form should not always be taken at face value because at the end of the day form is just a result of a combination of factors. The key is to note likely factors which may enable a particular horse to show marked improvement in form. The main factor is the ground conditions. If a horse finished out of the money in wet conditions at its last race and it has not previous form in such conditions then I think it is reasonable to assume that the horse could not handle the ground and is likely to show improvement in form if racing in dry conditions at its next start.
The same can be said for the change in distances. A horse may have raced at a distance way short of its best but can show quick improvement if racing over a much longer distance. There are many reasons why horses run at unsuitable distances but the main one is that race was being used as a lead-up to its target race.
Other factors which can improve a horse’s form are a change of rider, big drop in weight, more favourable barrier position, gear changes and a different course. The astute punter who notices even a slight change which may improve a horse’s form can cash in.
Horses can receive a bad run during the race such as being caught wide all of the way and the horse who is able to finish just out of the placings after such a difficult run may be good enough to win next time out with a better run.
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